Climate change linked to rising cancer rates among women in MENA: AUC study
A groundbreaking study by the American University in Cairo (AUC) has found a significant association between rising temperatures and increasing cancer incidence and mortality among women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) — a region already facing some of the world’s most extreme climate risks.
Published on 27 May in Frontiers in Public Health, the study analyzed health and climate data from 17 MENA countries between 1998 and 2019. It revealed that for every 1°C increase in average temperature, an additional 173 to 280 cancer cases and 171 to 332 cancer-related deaths occurred per 100,000 women.
“We found that as temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises — particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria, lead author and postdoctoral fellow at AUC’s Institute of Global Health and Human Ecology. “Though the per-degree increases appear modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
Correlation, Not Causation — But a Strong Signal
While the research does not establish direct causality, the patterns uncovered suggest that climate change may be exacerbating known and suspected cancer risk factors. These include exposure to carcinogenic air pollutants, hormonal disruption caused by heat stress, UV radiation, and immune system suppression.
“High temperatures can increase exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals and airborne pollutants, all of which have been implicated in cancer development,” Abuelkheir told SciDev.net. “Heat itself may also impact cell stability, especially in tissues like the breast, increasing vulnerability to cancerous changes.”
The study used multiple linear regression models and adjusted for GDP per capita to account for socioeconomic variations across countries. Researchers described the work as exploratory and stressed the need for more granular and longitudinal research.
Disproportionate Impact Across the Region
Significant associations between rising temperatures and women’s cancer rates were found in six of the 17 countries studied: Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Syria. Four of these are located in the Gulf — one of the world’s hottest regions.
“In Gulf countries, extreme heat is likely the primary driver of the observed associations,” said Abuelkheir. “In Jordan and Syria, however, the combination of climate stress and under-resourced healthcare systems may be contributing factors.”
Qatar reported the sharpest increase in breast cancer incidence, with 560 additional cases per 100,000 women per 1°C rise in temperature, followed by Bahrain with 330. The highest increase in mortality was linked to ovarian cancer, while cervical cancer showed the smallest change.
The disparities between countries underscore the influence of multiple intersecting factors — from pollution levels and healthcare access to national screening programs and public health awareness.
“Even in areas where early detection efforts are improving, rising mortality suggests that environmental exposures may be driving a heavier burden,” Abuelkheir noted.
A Call for Climate-Integrated Health Policy
The authors of the study are urging governments in the MENA region to integrate climate resilience into national cancer strategies. Key recommendations include expanding screening for at-risk populations, improving healthcare infrastructure, and raising public awareness of environmental health risks.
“Cancer prevention and climate adaptation must go hand-in-hand — especially for vulnerable women,” said Abuelkheir. “We need climate-smart public health systems that can anticipate and respond to these emerging challenges.”
The study calls for greater interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together environmental science, oncology, and social research to confront the complex and interconnected impacts of climate change on public health.
“Our findings do not imply that heat alone causes cancer,” Abuelkheir concluded. “But the consistency of the pattern across countries and cancer types is deeply concerning. Without urgent action, the cancer burden linked to climate change will continue to rise — disproportionately affecting the region’s most marginalized women.”
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